Israel’s Western allies turn against it over Gaza. Is it ‘too little, too late’?

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

After 1½ years of death and destruction in Gaza, Israel’s closest Western allies have begun to distance themselves from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – but only in their rhetoric, not by their actions.

Over the last two weeks, the leaders of Britain, Canada and the European Union have threatened to take “concrete steps” against Israel for violating international humanitarian law by blocking the delivery of food, medicine and other aid desperately needed by Gaza’s starving population.

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However, any suggestion that Western governments’ shifting rhetoric will lead to any substantive change “feels overly optimistic”, according to Guy Burton, author of China and Middle East Conflicts: Responding to War and Rivalry from the Cold War to the Present.

“Yes, we’ve seen growing public dissatisfaction and frustration over the past year and a half – protests across Western cities are a clear indicator of that,” Burton told This Week in Asia. “But as you’ve probably noticed, those demonstrations haven’t led to significant policy shifts in Western capitals.”

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Burton said that the EU’s decision to review its trade agreement with Israel “does matter”, given that around 30 per cent of the Middle Eastern country’s trade is with the bloc.

But “there’s no timeline for when it will take place or conclude, so it’s far from a comprehensive sanction,” said the independent analyst based in Brussels who has taught international relations at universities in the West Bank, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

Similarly, the UK’s pause on negotiating a free-trade agreement with Israel is “unlikely to affect Israel in any meaningful way”, he said.

“They’re talking about sanctioning West Bank settlers, but [saying] nothing on the International Criminal Court warrants for Netanyahu or his former defence minister” Yoav Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity issued last November, Burton said.

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Trump appeared to be prioritising relations with wealthy Arab states and exploring a deal with Iran, “essentially putting ‘America first’ over the traditional US-Israel partnership”, Burton said. Yet as long as the US remains Israel’s main source of military aid and equipment, he said their relationship would not “come under any serious threat”.

“We may see a bit more humanitarian aid trickling into Gaza due to Western pressure”, Burton said, but he thought a change in the overall course of the war or Israel’s position was “highly unlikely”.

Western leaders are speaking out, but he sees little chance of them cutting ties with Israel or Netanyahu. “For them, Gaza is a problem – a political headache.”

“They don’t want to see the suffering or the famine” in Gaza, Burton said. So if Netanyahu “allows more aid trucks in, they’ll likely consider that sufficient progress and move on”.

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