"The era of symbolic retaliation is over." Experts on the IDF attack on Iran

RBC

Early in the morning of June 13, Israel struck more than 100 Iranian targets, including one of the largest nuclear facilities. How experts assess the threat of a full-scale war between the two countries - in the RBC article

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Lancaster University research fellow Guy Burton

The situation is certainly dangerous and will almost certainly provoke a response from Iran. But it is not unprecedented: we have seen at least two similar incidents since last April. What is different now is that the exchange of blows is becoming increasingly direct. Previously, Iran acted through proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis, and Israel maintained a degree of plausible deniability, such as in the cyberattacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2010. Now, that deniability has all but disappeared.

As for the likelihood of escalation to a full-scale war, I believe it remains low. Neither side seems to want such an outcome. For Iran, a major conflict would be economically and politically destabilizing. For Israel, these attacks could serve short-term domestic political goals, especially for a government that faces serious criticism for its actions in Gaza. However, a full-scale war would be an extremely risky proposition. Iran would likely respond in a way that both sides could save face and temporarily escape the situation.

As for the impact on Iran’s nuclear program, strikes of this kind are unlikely to stop it entirely. They might temporarily reduce Iran’s technical capabilities and slow its uranium enrichment. But Iran already has the knowledge and skills to rebuild, so this is more of a tactical breathing space than a solution. A permanent end to the nuclear program, if possible at all, would require a political agreement, not military force.

Such attacks also undermine trust not only between Israel and Iran, but also between Iran and the United States. Even if the United States was not directly involved, the perception in Tehran is that Washington and Tel Aviv are acting in concert. This will only deepen Iran’s skepticism about the ongoing nuclear talks, which have already stalled. Publicly, the United States insists that Iran should not enrich uranium, but privately its position is more ambiguous. From Tehran’s perspective, the United States is inconsistent at best and unreliable at worst, especially if it cannot restrain its closest regional ally. This could be the final blow to the US-Iran nuclear talks. With little trust and a perception of American complicity in Israel’s actions, it is difficult to see how a diplomatic path can be maintained.

Finally, the Iranian regime remains unpopular domestically, but I do not expect these events to provoke significant unrest. On the contrary, external attacks, especially those that cause civilian casualties, are likely to rally the population around the national flag, even if they do not support the regime. Moreover, the authorities will be closely monitoring the situation and are prepared to suppress any protests that arise.

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